Thursday, May 5, 2016

Woolworths continues to trend down



















Source: Yahoo Finance

No need to be a charting guru to realise that a solid down trend continues with Woolworths (WOW). Interesting that the two solid runs (marked) both ended very suddenly.  Needs to break above $24 which doesn't seem likely unless some good news is released some time soon.

Friday, February 12, 2016

B&Q, Homebase and the UK Hardware market

And so as Woolworths shuts down Masters, Wesfarmers has acquired Homebase in the UK to roll out Bunnings.  Kind of interesting that they both made their respective announcements on the same day.  Even more interesting that the announcements were made to the ASX only a few minutes apart.

Much has been written about Woolworths Masters disaster.  Less has been written about Wesfarmers foray into the UK however the commentary appears less negative than expected.  There have been the obvious comparisons with Masters. And of course the reminders of Australian companies struggling in overseas markets.  National Australia Bank finally de merged from Clydesdale Bank last week.

Wesfarmers has conceded that the acquisition increases the company's risk profile however provides an opportunity for long term value creation.  They hope it can achieve 18% return on capital within three to five years.

So what to make of all this.  When Woolworths rolled out Masters everyone was an expert and had an opinion as they perused the aisles.  Unless you've recently lived in the UK chances are you know next to nothing about Homebase and its main competitor, B&Q.

Enter Google.  This chart shows internet searches for "Homebase" and "B&Q"

















Source: Google trends

There are easily double the number of people searching for "B&Q" online than there are searching for "Homebase."  Which is to be expected since B&Q has 39% of the home hardware market in the UK and Homebase has only 12% according to broker JPMorgan.   Interestingly B&Q has been trending up a little since 2011 (when they acquired 31 stores) where as Homebase's searches have been flat for the last ten years.  Once Wesfarmers has the keys to Homebase and have settled in we'll re-visit the graph and see what progress they are making.  And in time the key question will be...  Does the brand "Bunnings" have traction with the UK consumer?

Monday, February 1, 2016

10 years of Wesfarmers, Woolworths and ASX200



















Source: Google Finance

Woolworths may be trending down but it's still a good distance ahead of Wesfarmers and the ASX200 when the return is measured from ten years ago.

Thursday, December 17, 2015

Internet traffic for Bunnings and Masters


















Source: Google Trends

It's no secret that sales at Bunnings are motoring ahead of Masters. Woolworths management continues to put on a brave face describing Masters as a long term investment and talking up new store formats.
Online the search term "Bunnings" is far, far ahead of "Masters."   Masters has been growing at a slow rate but this seems to have faded in the last six months.  In contrast Bunnings continues to make strong gains particularly in the last year.  Searches in December in the lead up to Christmas show a spike every year.

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Internet traffic for JB Hifi and Dick Smith


















Source: Google Trends

Probably best to never underestimate the importance of Christmas to a retailer.  The above graph shows google searches for the terms "JB Hifi" and "Dick Smith."
All the spikes represent the surge in searches in December of each year.  Looks like the clearance sale at Dick Smith from a couple of weeks ago certainly generated a lot of interest online with a massive spike at the right hand side of the chart.  With this exception online searches have been drifting sideways to lower which isn't a good sign for either retailer.

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

New lows for Woolworths

















Source: Yahoo Finance

After spending the last six weeks going sideways and just holding above $23, Woolworths (WOW) has now broken the support level to be at a new 52 week low.
Their relaunched loyalty scheme has been receiving negative feedback and one wonders how or if this will impact quarterly sales.
Dividend yield continues to edge up now to 6.2%.


Monday, December 14, 2015

ANZ share price with Mike Smith

















Source: Yahoo Finance

With ANZ shares currently trading around $26 there is a distinct possibility the shares will end lower than when Mike Smith commenced in 2007.  As compared to the impressive run under the previous CEO John McFarlane.